If it’s true that the EU is falling behind and American national wealth is increasing and has increased then why are Americans so pessimistic? Whatever those statistics are measuring is no reflected in people’s lives.
The take on China is assuming the worst. That China’s demographics fall to about a tfr of 1 or lower. You say that China will lose 700 million over “the few decades” - being charitable let’s assume you mean 80 years. That would mean deaths exceeding births by 8 million a year on average, albeit back loaded. Deaths in total are now 10 million, so you are assuming very high increases in deaths or almost no births. Chinas population will fall but probably not less than 1Bn.
The Australian survey that sees trend growth in China of 2-3% a year is an outlier. China’s near term growth is trending at 5%. And there’s no reason to assume that if AI adds 1.5% to American growth it won’t do the same in China. China will clearly pass out the US in nominal GDP by 2030 or sooner.
The US is also in a demographic deficit although you would hit hard pressed to find any reference to that in most of the cookie cutter China is doomed reports. Immigration might fill some of that gap but at the expense of a fair amount of social cohesion. And the assumed benefits of immigration flows are largely only true of highly educated immigrants, and the H1B program is a drop in the immigration bucket.
If it’s true that the EU is falling behind and American national wealth is increasing and has increased then why are Americans so pessimistic? Whatever those statistics are measuring is no reflected in people’s lives.
The take on China is assuming the worst. That China’s demographics fall to about a tfr of 1 or lower. You say that China will lose 700 million over “the few decades” - being charitable let’s assume you mean 80 years. That would mean deaths exceeding births by 8 million a year on average, albeit back loaded. Deaths in total are now 10 million, so you are assuming very high increases in deaths or almost no births. Chinas population will fall but probably not less than 1Bn.
The Australian survey that sees trend growth in China of 2-3% a year is an outlier. China’s near term growth is trending at 5%. And there’s no reason to assume that if AI adds 1.5% to American growth it won’t do the same in China. China will clearly pass out the US in nominal GDP by 2030 or sooner.
The US is also in a demographic deficit although you would hit hard pressed to find any reference to that in most of the cookie cutter China is doomed reports. Immigration might fill some of that gap but at the expense of a fair amount of social cohesion. And the assumed benefits of immigration flows are largely only true of highly educated immigrants, and the H1B program is a drop in the immigration bucket.
Nice one!