Yes, it's the median forecast. That means it could be higher OR lower. I don't know what you mean by the authoritarian state sentence. Are you suggesting that the population might be larger because the government will force people to have more children? If so, this hasn't worked so far since they reversed the one-child policy.
The demographics have very little to do with the state (unless they start killing people on a Stalin level). Demographic projections are usually fairly accurate, although the UN's is not the best model, in my opinion. The IHME has lower figures for the China central estimate: Peak population in 2024 (but it has already peaked), down to 732 million by 2100.
Far more uncertain demographically is the population of Africa in 2100. The scenarios there swing a billion one way or the other.
Nice one!
A drop in China to 766 million is a standard UN forecast. Other, more sophisticated projections, find lower numbers.
The UN fertility projection for China in 2100 is 1.48, not "1 or lower".
The official numbers are probably too high.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-low-fertility-rate-population-decline-by-yi-fuxian-2023-02
Yes, it's the median forecast. That means it could be higher OR lower. I don't know what you mean by the authoritarian state sentence. Are you suggesting that the population might be larger because the government will force people to have more children? If so, this hasn't worked so far since they reversed the one-child policy.
The demographics have very little to do with the state (unless they start killing people on a Stalin level). Demographic projections are usually fairly accurate, although the UN's is not the best model, in my opinion. The IHME has lower figures for the China central estimate: Peak population in 2024 (but it has already peaked), down to 732 million by 2100.
Far more uncertain demographically is the population of Africa in 2100. The scenarios there swing a billion one way or the other.