If it’s true that the EU is falling behind and American national wealth is increasing and has increased then why are Americans so pessimistic? Whatever those statistics are measuring is no reflected in people’s lives.
The take on China is assuming the worst. That China’s demographics fall to about a tfr of 1 or lower. You say that China will lose 700 million over “the few decades” - being charitable let’s assume you mean 80 years. That would mean deaths exceeding births by 8 million a year on average, albeit back loaded. Deaths in total are now 10 million, so you are assuming very high increases in deaths or almost no births. Chinas population will fall but probably not less than 1Bn.
The Australian survey that sees trend growth in China of 2-3% a year is an outlier. China’s near term growth is trending at 5%. And there’s no reason to assume that if AI adds 1.5% to American growth it won’t do the same in China. China will clearly pass out the US in nominal GDP by 2030 or sooner.
The US is also in a demographic deficit although you would hit hard pressed to find any reference to that in most of the cookie cutter China is doomed reports. Immigration might fill some of that gap but at the expense of a fair amount of social cohesion. And the assumed benefits of immigration flows are largely only true of highly educated immigrants, and the H1B program is a drop in the immigration bucket.
That’s the median forecast. The high level forecast is 1.1B. Any assumption that nothing can be done by an authoritarian state is useless. As are all projections on demographics really. .
All of these extrapolations are based on about 2-3 years data. China had a tfr of 1.6 pre covid. It was covid that pushed it it the low 1.2/1. Just as the US dropped to 1.6.
Yes, it's the median forecast. That means it could be higher OR lower. I don't know what you mean by the authoritarian state sentence. Are you suggesting that the population might be larger because the government will force people to have more children? If so, this hasn't worked so far since they reversed the one-child policy.
The demographics have very little to do with the state (unless they start killing people on a Stalin level). Demographic projections are usually fairly accurate, although the UN's is not the best model, in my opinion. The IHME has lower figures for the China central estimate: Peak population in 2024 (but it has already peaked), down to 732 million by 2100.
Far more uncertain demographically is the population of Africa in 2100. The scenarios there swing a billion one way or the other.
If it’s true that the EU is falling behind and American national wealth is increasing and has increased then why are Americans so pessimistic? Whatever those statistics are measuring is no reflected in people’s lives.
The take on China is assuming the worst. That China’s demographics fall to about a tfr of 1 or lower. You say that China will lose 700 million over “the few decades” - being charitable let’s assume you mean 80 years. That would mean deaths exceeding births by 8 million a year on average, albeit back loaded. Deaths in total are now 10 million, so you are assuming very high increases in deaths or almost no births. Chinas population will fall but probably not less than 1Bn.
The Australian survey that sees trend growth in China of 2-3% a year is an outlier. China’s near term growth is trending at 5%. And there’s no reason to assume that if AI adds 1.5% to American growth it won’t do the same in China. China will clearly pass out the US in nominal GDP by 2030 or sooner.
The US is also in a demographic deficit although you would hit hard pressed to find any reference to that in most of the cookie cutter China is doomed reports. Immigration might fill some of that gap but at the expense of a fair amount of social cohesion. And the assumed benefits of immigration flows are largely only true of highly educated immigrants, and the H1B program is a drop in the immigration bucket.
A drop in China to 766 million is a standard UN forecast. Other, more sophisticated projections, find lower numbers.
That’s the median forecast. The high level forecast is 1.1B. Any assumption that nothing can be done by an authoritarian state is useless. As are all projections on demographics really. .
The UN fertility projection for China in 2100 is 1.48, not "1 or lower".
All of these extrapolations are based on about 2-3 years data. China had a tfr of 1.6 pre covid. It was covid that pushed it it the low 1.2/1. Just as the US dropped to 1.6.
The official numbers are probably too high.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-low-fertility-rate-population-decline-by-yi-fuxian-2023-02
Yes, it's the median forecast. That means it could be higher OR lower. I don't know what you mean by the authoritarian state sentence. Are you suggesting that the population might be larger because the government will force people to have more children? If so, this hasn't worked so far since they reversed the one-child policy.
The demographics have very little to do with the state (unless they start killing people on a Stalin level). Demographic projections are usually fairly accurate, although the UN's is not the best model, in my opinion. The IHME has lower figures for the China central estimate: Peak population in 2024 (but it has already peaked), down to 732 million by 2100.
Far more uncertain demographically is the population of Africa in 2100. The scenarios there swing a billion one way or the other.
Nice one!