⤴⤵ Up Wing/Down Wing #35

A curated selection of pro-progress and anti-progress news items from the week that was

In case you missed it .. .

✨ Talkin’ bout an AI Revolution: 3 scenarios (Wednesday)

👶 Lessons on birth rates: Japan and South Korea (Thursday)

👶 Progressive pronatalism: A Quick Q&A with … philosopher Victor Kumar (Friday)

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Up Wing Things

🤖 OpenAI unveils improved GPT-4.5. Their new AI model is designed to enhance writing, coding, and conversational accuracy. This latest release is better at understanding subtle prompts and reduces hallucinations, making AI-generated content more reliable. Initially available as a research preview for ChatGPT Pro users, GPT-4.5 represents a major leap in AI capabilities, comparable to the jump from GPT-3.5 to GPT-4. OpenAI refined the model using advanced post-training techniques and feedback loops, improving its ability to answer coding questions it wasn’t directly trained on. With growing competition from DeepSeek, xAI, and Anthropic, OpenAI is evolving its approach. Future models will dynamically adjust computing power to optimize responses, simplifying user experience while delivering smarter, faster AI interactions. (Bberg)

⚛️ Amazon unveils first quantum computing chip. Amazon has officially entered the quantum computing race with the launch of Ocelot, its first in-house quantum processor. Developed by Amazon Web Services, Ocelot is designed to offer researchers and businesses a new tool for tackling complex problems in materials science, AI, and cryptography. Unlike traditional supercomputers, quantum processors like Ocelot leverage quantum mechanics to perform calculations exponentially faster. Amazon plans to integrate Ocelot into its cloud services. With competitors like Google and IBM also advancing their quantum programs, Amazon’s entry into the field signals a new era of competition and innovation. As quantum technology matures, Ocelot could help solve problems far beyond the reach of today’s computers. (WSJ)

🚀 New AI diffusion models massively improve their speed. AI-powered text generation is getting faster than ever, thanks to diffusion-based models like Mercury Coder and LLaDA, which generate entire responses simultaneously instead of token by token. The performance gains in Mercury Coder are particularly notable:

Mercury claims dramatic speed improvements. Their Mercury Coder Mini scores 88.0 percent on HumanEval and 77.1 percent on MBPP—comparable to GPT-4o Mini—while reportedly operating at 1,109 tokens per second compared to GPT-4o Mini’s 59 tokens per second. This represents roughly a 19x speed advantage over GPT-4o Mini while maintaining similar performance on coding benchmarks.

These speed improvements could revolutionize AI-powered development tools, conversational AI, and mobile applications, allowing for real-time AI responses without sacrificing accuracy. (Ars)

💼 Skilled engineers in demand while tech layoffs persist. Those specializing in AI, cybersecurity, and semiconductor design remain highly sought after. Companies are shifting hiring priorities, focusing on high-value roles that support emerging technologies rather than widespread workforce expansion. While firms like Google and Microsoft have cut jobs, they are simultaneously ramping up recruitment in AI research and cloud computing, where competition for talent remains fierce. Smaller firms and government agencies are also absorbing displaced workers, particularly in defense and infrastructure technology. Experts suggest that engineers who upskill in AI, robotics, and quantum computing will be best positioned to navigate the evolving job market and secure long-term opportunities. (IEEE)

☄️ Earth’s first asteroid mining mission nears launch. The dream of extracting space resources is coming closer to reality. With a small robotic spacecraft called Odin equipped with two black-and-white cameras, AstroForge’s mission is set to revolutionize space-based manufacturing by analyzing asteroids that could be rich in resources:

M-type asteroids are thought to be rich in metals such as iron and nickel. These could be useful as a resource for construction in space, perhaps to build new spacecraft and machinery. However, some M-types may also be rich in more valuable platinum group metals, or P.G.M.s, used in devices such as smartphones.

If successful, a new space economy could be created, enabling mining operations to supply materials for advanced technologies and interplanetary infrastructure. This plan could initiate the transformation of asteroids into resource hubs. (NYT)

🤖 AI assistants are transforming factories. AI is revolutionizing manufacturing, with AI-powered assistants now working alongside human employees on factory floors. Companies like Siemens and General Motors are integrating AI assistants to predict equipment failures, adjust workflows, and automate routine tasks, reducing downtime and increasing productivity. Unlike traditional automation, these systems learn from human workers, adapting to changing conditions and improving over time. By enhancing human expertise rather than replacing it, AI assistants are helping factories operate smarter, faster, and more sustainably. (Wired)

🌍 New drill could unlock unlimited geothermal energy. Scientists are pushing the boundaries of geothermal energy by drilling the deepest hole in history, aiming to tap into the Earth's superheated rock as a source of clean, limitless power. This ambitious project seeks to reach depths of 12 miles, where temperatures exceed 500°C (932°F) using an innovative new drilling technique:

Unlike traditional drilling, this effort uses high-energy beams to vaporize rock, creating ultra-deep wells faster and more efficiently than conventional methods. This breakthrough technique bypasses the limitations of mechanical drill bits, allowing access to geothermal heat sources previously considered unreachable.

If successful, this breakthrough could provide a near-infinite supply of carbon-free energy, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and stabilizing grids worldwide.

🌍 AI tools are helping target aid and alleviate poverty. AI-powered programs are helping aid organizations identify and assist vulnerable communities more efficiently. By analyzing satellite images, economic data, and local surveys, AI can pinpoint areas most in need, ensuring that cash aid, food, and healthcare reach the right people faster. In places with limited infrastructure, AI models have improved the accuracy of aid distribution, reducing waste and enhancing resource allocation. Researchers are working on refining these systems to eliminate biases and work alongside human experts. AI may prove to be a powerful weapon against human suffering caused by extreme poverty. (Nature)

🚀 German startup targets Western Europe’s first orbital launch. A German space startup is making history by preparing for Western Europe’s first orbital rocket launch. The mission, led by Isar Aerospace, will launch from Andøya, Norway, aiming to place a small satellite into orbit — a milestone that could establish Germany as a key player in commercial space access. With Europe seeking independent launch capabilities, this step will help reduce reliance on foreign providers like SpaceX. Isar Aerospace’s Spectrum rocket, designed for cost-effective satellite deployment, could open the door for regular commercial launches from European soil. If successful, it could strengthen Germany’s role in shaping the future of affordable, flexible space access. (Ars)

🛡️ Plans in place for the “Golden Dome,” a giant US missile defense shield. The US is advancing homeland defense with a concept dubbed the “Golden Dome,” a multi-layered missile defense system designed to counter ballistic missiles, hypersonic threats, and cruise missiles. Unlike Israel’s Iron Dome, this initiative aims for comprehensive national protection:

According to the US Missile Defense Agency’s (MDA) recent Request for Information (RFI), ‘Golden Dome’ will not be a simple adaptation of Israel’s Iron Dome but a comprehensive, multi-layered defense system incorporating a variety of advanced technologies. The system will address threats from ballistic, hypersonic, and advanced cruise missiles while leveraging the Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor network to detect and track threats in real-time.

By combining directed energy weapons, electronic warfare, and cyber defenses, Golden Dome will redefine US missile defense, making the nation more resilient and prepared for the future.

🧬 CRISPR gene editing poised to improve medicine and farming. CRISPR technology is unlocking solutions in medicine and agriculture, with gene-edited pig organs set for clinical trials this summer, potentially alleviating the global organ shortage. The first CRISPR-based therapy is already on the market, offering a lifelong cure for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia. Beyond healthcare, CRISPR is reshaping agriculture, helping crops resist climate change, improve yields, and enhance nutrition. Scientists are even developing fiber-enriched white bread and tastier health foods to promote better diets. To maximize these benefits, regulatory reforms are needed to streamline approvals for personalized therapies and gene-edited crops. (Economist)

🌕 Pioneering robot will explore lunar craters. A groundbreaking, hopping robot is heading to the Moon to explore its deepest, most shadowed craters, where traditional rovers struggle to navigate. The robotic explorer’s innovative movement system enables it to access previously unreachable regions:

To move around, the robot will use a series of carefully controlled jumps, allowing it to traverse rugged terrain and reach areas of permanent shadow. By leveraging this hopping mechanism, it can bypass obstacles that would be insurmountable for traditional wheeled rovers, offering a unique advantage for lunar exploration.

Scientists believe these permanently shadowed craters may hold frozen water, a crucial resource for future lunar missions. By analyzing the terrain and searching for ice deposits, this agile lunar scout could play a key role in supporting human exploration and deep-space missions. (Wired)

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Down Wing Things

💊 The 50-year war on cancer faces stagnation. Despite five decades of investment and research, America’s "war on cancer" is struggling to make significant breakthroughs in survival rates for many forms of the disease. Scientists warn that progress has been uneven, with advances in some cancers but not in others. A major issue is the profit-driven pharmaceutical industry, which prioritizes lucrative treatments over long-term preventive measures and innovative therapies. Meanwhile, racial and socioeconomic disparities in healthcare access mean that many patients don’t receive the latest treatments. With cancer rates expected to rise in the coming decades due to aging populations and environmental factors, experts argue that the US needs to refocus on prevention, early detection, and affordable therapies to truly win this fight. (Live Science)

🕵️ OpenAI suggests China is using an AI-powered surveillance system. OpenAI has identified an AI-driven surveillance tool designed to track individuals, analyze online activity, and automate cyber espionage. Allegedly developed by a state-affiliated hacking group, the tool can scrape social media, intercept communications, and build detailed behavioral profiles, raising serious privacy concerns. These systems bypass traditional cybersecurity defenses, increasing the risk of government-led surveillance targeting journalists, dissidents, and private citizens. (NYT)

⚕️ Trump shuts down global health data program. The Trump administration’s decision to terminate the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) program has dealt a severe blow to global health research, cutting off reliable data collection in 90 countries. The surveys, funded by USAID, were often the only source of accurate health metrics on maternal and child mortality, nutrition, and disease prevalence in low-income nations. Without DHS, governments and aid organizations will struggle to track health trends, allocate resources, and measure the impact of foreign aid cuts. Experts warn that this move could severely weaken global public health efforts, leaving policymakers blind to worsening health crises in vulnerable regions. (NYT)

🧬 Biotech company Illumina faces new policy challenges. Illumina, once the undisputed leader in gene sequencing, is now struggling against policy headwinds and intensifying competition. The company has been directly impacted by shifting trade approaches:

Earlier this month, China placed Illumina on its list of ‘unreliable entities’ in retaliation for Trump’s new tariffs. Days later, the company faced fresh pressure at home when the National Institutes of Health announced caps on certain research expenses, a move that for now has been temporarily blocked by a judge.

The NIH’s funding cuts could shrink its US revenue by one to two percent. Additionally, Healthcare company Roche has entered the sequencing market with a cost-cutting machine, threatening Illumina’s dominance. With its stock down over 70 percent in five years, Illumina’s future looks uncertain, as Wall Street questions whether it can return to meaningful growth. (WSJ)

💼 AI data centers fail to deliver promised job boom. Despite political and tech leaders touting AI data centers as major job creators, the reality is far less promising. While 1,500 workers are building OpenAI’s Stargate facility in Abilene, Texas, only 100 full-time jobs will remain once it’s operational. Compared to factories or warehouses, which employ hundreds per facility, data centers require minimal staff to maintain racks of computers. Companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are investing billions in AI infrastructure, yet these facilities remain low-employment ventures post-construction. Stargate’s impact is largely indirect, relying on supplier contracts and temporary construction work rather than permanent jobs. As AI reshapes industries, local economies hoping for long-term employment gains from data centers may be left disappointed. (WSJ)