✨🎇🎆 Talkin’ bout an AI Revolution: 3 scenarios

There's good reason to think that by 2030, we'll only still be in the early days of this intelligence explosion. And that's OK.

My fellow pro-growth Up Wingers,

Signs and wonders. That I can now engage substantively with topics previously relegated to speculative fiction — and as recently as 24 months ago! — suggests we could be witnessing an epochal transformation in technological capability.

For example: Prior to OpenAI's deployment of ChatGPT, few would have anticipated America's largest financial institution publishing formal analyses referencing Silicon Valley's "continuing pursuit of their long-term aspiration of Artificial General Intelligence"— which is what JPMorgan analysts recently did. This migration of formerly fringe technological ambitions into establishment financial chatter signals a profound shift in how AI is being evaluated by Wall Street, specifically, and mainstream institutions and society more generally.

Possible paths

Given that amazing state of play, what’s next? How might the rest of the (Roaring? Warring? Boring?) 2020s play out as AI continually improves and diffuses?

Metaculus, an online forecasting platform, and Convergence Analysis, a strategic forecasting firm focusing on AI, just released a report, “Threshold 2030: Modeling AI Economic Futures,” summarizing an October forecasting exercise where attendees — 30 economists, AI policy experts, and forecasters — predicted various economic and technological milestones through 2030. (There is a lot more to the report than what I am presenting here.)