I find the forecast of a peak in the 2060s very plausible. It fits with projections more sophisticated than those of the UN. The Wittgenstein Center seeks peak global population between 2070 and 2080 at 9.8 billion. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) seems to be an even better model. It puts peak population in 2064 at 9.73 billion (declining to 8.578 billion by 2100).
However, the big uncertainty lies with Africa. Looking at the IHME numbers, from my article on this topic: "A third of the difference is due to faster reductions in sub-Saharan African fertility and two thirds due to the lower level of fertility expected in populations with below-replacement fertility levels, particularly China and India. " Projections for Africa vary by up to a billion by 2100 (using central estimates). I'd be very interested to hear Fernández-Villaverde's take on Africa.
Excellent post. A bit defaitistic on the ways and means of the political system, though. With sufficient econonomic incentives it ought to be possible to keep fertility at a desired level. Like in Israel. Where the fertility is still 3. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=IL
I find the forecast of a peak in the 2060s very plausible. It fits with projections more sophisticated than those of the UN. The Wittgenstein Center seeks peak global population between 2070 and 2080 at 9.8 billion. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) seems to be an even better model. It puts peak population in 2064 at 9.73 billion (declining to 8.578 billion by 2100).
However, the big uncertainty lies with Africa. Looking at the IHME numbers, from my article on this topic: "A third of the difference is due to faster reductions in sub-Saharan African fertility and two thirds due to the lower level of fertility expected in populations with below-replacement fertility levels, particularly China and India. " Projections for Africa vary by up to a billion by 2100 (using central estimates). I'd be very interested to hear Fernández-Villaverde's take on Africa.
Excellent post. A bit defaitistic on the ways and means of the political system, though. With sufficient econonomic incentives it ought to be possible to keep fertility at a desired level. Like in Israel. Where the fertility is still 3. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=IL