The 6 month ban could easily become a one year ban, and then further extended. Like the student loan repayment pause, or the “30 days to flatten the curve”.
Alexander is misrepresenting the argument as "The future of AI is very uncertain, therefore it's safe." He is calling this "The Safe Uncertainty Fallacy". It's very much a straw man argument.
As a developer (and ex CEO) I’ve been using ChatGPT and it’s a gigantic improvement in the productivity. I have the details at https://ceobook.substack.com/p/ai-is-radically-changing-our-jobs but the TL:DR; is any developer starting on this now will be 4x to 10x as productive in 6 months.
Yes there’s potential downsides. But the clear upsides are gigantic. Like any powerful tool let’s take careful advantage of it now.
So Elon is calling for a pause for his probable future competition but meanwhile accelerating Tesla’s full self driving AI. And not mentioning China’s AI work in his letter is also illuminating given his business interests there. I see only one letter signer from PRC Yi Zeng.
The 6 month ban could easily become a one year ban, and then further extended. Like the student loan repayment pause, or the “30 days to flatten the curve”.
Scott Alexander is giving a really unfair take on Tyler Cowen's anti-pause piece:
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mr-tries-the-safe-uncertainty-fallacy
Alexander is misrepresenting the argument as "The future of AI is very uncertain, therefore it's safe." He is calling this "The Safe Uncertainty Fallacy". It's very much a straw man argument.
If there is a letter to NOT pause AI research, I would sign that. I’m a software startup founder and ex CEO (recently sold my last startup)
As a developer (and ex CEO) I’ve been using ChatGPT and it’s a gigantic improvement in the productivity. I have the details at https://ceobook.substack.com/p/ai-is-radically-changing-our-jobs but the TL:DR; is any developer starting on this now will be 4x to 10x as productive in 6 months.
Yes there’s potential downsides. But the clear upsides are gigantic. Like any powerful tool let’s take careful advantage of it now.
So Elon is calling for a pause for his probable future competition but meanwhile accelerating Tesla’s full self driving AI. And not mentioning China’s AI work in his letter is also illuminating given his business interests there. I see only one letter signer from PRC Yi Zeng.