✨🤖 What jobs today are really most AI vulnerable?
Messy jobs may be most resilient
My fellow pro-growth Up Wingers,
I wanted to start this issue by updating you on Goldman Sachs's latest quarterly tracker of progress in the emerging Age of Artificial Intelligence. It continues to reveal a two-speed revolution unfolding:
Investment in AI infrastructure continues at a blistering pace, with chipmakers expecting 28 percent revenue growth by end-2025. Analysts have upgraded their projections substantially — by $200 billion for semiconductors and $105 billion for other hardware enablers — since ChatGPT's debut in November 2022. “While a boost from AI-related investment is not visible in the US GDP data (and likely won’t have a major impact due to the BEA’s treatment of semiconductor’s and cloud services as intermediate inputs), manufacturers’ shipments for AI-related hardware remain elevated in the US and have risen in Japan, Germany, and Canada.”
Actual corporate adoption, however, proceeds at a more measured tempo. Just 7.4 percent of American firms now deploy AI in their operations, up modestly from 6.1 percent in the previous quarter. Large companies remain at the leading edge with a 12 percent adoption rate, though medium-sized businesses are catching up. “Recent industry surveys suggest that businesses have continued to develop and pilot new AI tools, but few have been able to clearly measure any ROI and productivity gains.”
The labor market has thus far avoided significant disruption. AI-related positions constitute 23 percent of technology job listings but a mere 1.3 percent of all vacancies.
Finally, where deployed, the technology delivers impressive productivity gains — academic studies suggest 24 percent improvement, “while company anecdotes imply slightly larger gains of around 29 percent.”
Looking over our shoulders
But let’s circle back to the job market impact.
