⤴⤵ Up Wing/Down Wing #30

A curated selection of pro-progress and anti-progress news items from the week that was

In case you missed it .. .

✨ While tech CEOs talk up AGI immanence, real-world AI use cases emerge (Monday)

💊💉 The future of weight loss drugs: A Quick Q&A with … analyst (and superforecaster) Greg Justice (Tuesday)

⚡️ Jimmy Carter’s boldest deregulation idea never happened, unfortunately (Wednesday)

🌞☁️ Pro-growthers are having a moment. But so are degrowthers (Friday)

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Up Wing Things

⚛️ Plasma modelling brings fusion energy one step closer. Recent advancements in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) research are bringing us closer to achieving controlled nuclear fusion as a viable source of clean energy. A Chinese research team has developed new modeling techniques to study supra-thermal ions in fusion burning plasmas:

. . . the team implemented a new model for large-angle collisions, which also factors in the influence of background ions alongside the relative motion of ions present in binary collisions.

The resulting model proposed by the team allowed them to generate a more cohesive framework for understanding the currently elusive elements of ion kinetics.

These findings offer new insights into high-energy-density physics and the behavior of plasmas during fusion. Using novel hybrid-particle-in-cell simulations, the team observed increased alpha particle densities and improved ignition dynamics, aligning with data from the National Ignition Facility. This work complements global efforts, including breakthroughs in plasma stability and volume, and underscores the potential of fusion to provide sustainable energy while offering clues about the universe's early development. (The Debrief)

🚗 Uber and Lyft embrace driverless tech competitors in a new approach. The rideshare companies are shifting gears to integrate driverless taxis into their platforms after abandoning their own self-driving car development efforts:

Uber and Lyft once invested billions of dollars in developing their own self-driving cars. Uber co-founder Travis Kalanick used to say the company needed to lead the pivot to driverless technology or risk becoming irrelevant.

Both companies gave up on the costly endeavor during the pandemic, selling their self-driving units. Now they are competing to be the platforms on which the robotaxi technology developed by others will operate.

Both companies are partnering with firms like Waymo and May Mobility to offer autonomous rides, starting in cities like Austin and Atlanta. This means upgrading infrastructure, including creating depots for vehicle maintenance, adding app features for remote control, and training staff to handle rider needs in driverless vehicles. Uber and Lyft hope to become essential platforms for emerging robotaxi technology, offering developers access to their vast customer base. (WSJ)

📡 Amazon’s broadband project makes headway in the UK. Project Kuiper is progressing with plans to launch satellite broadband in the UK, aiming to challenge Elon Musk’s Starlink. Kuiper’s constellation is expected to deploy in 2025 and could roll out its broadband services later this year, pending approval from UK communications regulator Ofcom. The regulator is reviewing Amazon’s application for an Earth Station Network licence, which would enable the operation of satellite terminals in the UK. Kuiper plans to provide high-speed, low-latency internet to rural areas, government entities, and emergency responders. Additionally, Amazon is exploring direct-to-device satellite services for mobile connectivity. As demand for Starlink grows, with over 87,000 UK connections, Kuiper faces significant competition but seeks to close the gap through innovation and partnerships. (FT)

🎤 AI can interpret speech via throat vibrations. Researchers have developed a system that interprets tiny throat vibrations and contextual factors, such as time, weather, and emotional state, to reconstruct and enhance speech. The breakthrough offers hope to those with speech difficulties due to conditions like stroke or Parkinson’s disease. This approach avoids invasive brain-computer interfaces by using textile strain sensors to detect throat muscle movements and carotid artery pulses. The system utilizes two GPT-4o-mini-based models: One translates vibrations into sentences, while the other refines these sentences into personalized expressions. Tests showed a sentence error rate as low as 2.9 percent and a 55 percent increase in user satisfaction. (NS)

✏️ Human writers are bouncing back. After years of declining income and the rise of low-value "content" designed for clicks and SEO, these creatives are recognizing the true value of their work: “The Authors’ Licensing and Copywriting Society reported a 60.2 percent decrease in authors’ incomes when adjusted for inflation from 2006 to 2022.” While generative AI has flooded the internet with formulaic material, the demand for authentic, thoughtful writing is set to grow as audiences tire of automated drivel: “Ironically, the advent of AI-generated search, stalling traffic to original websites, will kill off the need for pointless “content” to game the system and will push people to demand better.” Legal battles over AI copyright and liability, coupled with failed efforts to imbue AI with creativity, have underscored the unique value of human authorship. Publishers supporting quality writing will attract the best talent and most dedicated audiences, while those prioritizing AI risk losing both. As this shift unfolds, the inherent worth of meaningful, human-created literature and journalism will be recognized, allowing writers to finally reclaim their place in a world saturated with machine-generated mediocrity. (Wired)

💬 Content moderation is going out of style. Meta, under CEO Mark Zuckerberg, announced plans to end fact-checking and loosen speech restrictions across Facebook and Instagram, aligning with similar moves by Elon Musk’s X (formerly Twitter). These changes reflect an industry-wide trend to reduce costly moderation efforts. Zuckerberg cited free expression and the flaws of complex moderation systems as motivations, while critics warn of increased risks of hate speech and misinformation. Meta’s move to community-driven moderation takes a page out of X’s Community Notes:

Researchers who have studied Community Notes say the system has some benefits. Some people perceive fellow users as more trustworthy than professional fact-checkers, and some researchers have found that users are less likely to reshare content that gets a note.

Platforms continue to navigate the fine balance between safety and freedom of expression, but the decision to place greater trust in users represents a change of the tide within these organizations. (WSJ)

🚀 Toyota looks to the stars with new space startup investment. Toyota Motor Corporation has announced plans to invest in Japanese space startup Interstellar Technologies (IST). Through its “Woven by Toyota” division, the company will invest ¥7 billion ($44.4 million) in IST’s Series F funding round to support rocket mass production and meet growing satellite launch demand: “The Japanese government is making investments toward similar strategies, which include preparing to launch 30 rockets annually by the early 2030s and establish Japan as Asia’s space hub.” Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda emphasized the company’s commitment to expanding mobility beyond Earth, including collaboration with Japan’s space agency to develop a lunar rover for NASA’s Artemis program. Toyota also plans to enter the telecommunications market by launching its own satellites, ensuring seamless communication for future mobility technologies. (The Debrief)

📦 The cardboard box fort of your childhood could become a reality. Cardboard is proving its mettle as a sustainable, low-cost building material. Professor Ahmad Taki and architect Daniel Ikemiyashiro Higa of De Montfort University designed an 860-square-foot modular house made primarily of cardboard with the hopes of targeting housing shortages in Lima. Peru. While cardboard requires treatments for moisture and fire resistance, it offers impressive insulation, flexibility, and recyclability:

It can readily be incorporated into steel-, concrete-, or wood-based structures in non-load bearing locations, doors, or into furniture. Cardboard also serves as a fantastic insulating material, with thermal properties that rival conventional materials.

Production of paper and paperboard products has been declining in the United States since 1999 due to increased digitalization. But while paper is no longer necessary for tracking information, it could find new use as a recyclable, carbon-storing building material.

Taki and Higa advocate incorporating it into construction and furniture, calling it an eco-friendly, affordable solution for sustainable building. (RealClearScience)

🤖 AI robotics are about to get a major boost. The field continues to grapple with a lack of real-world data for training large behavior models (LBMs). While large language models thrived on abundant internet data, physical AI has lagged due to limited data from costly, real-world robotics tests. Nvidia and Google DeepMind are addressing this with multiverse-style world simulators that create virtual 3D models and generate countless variations of real-world scenarios. Nvidia’s Cosmos model turns single data points into millions of diverse training scenarios. This leap could mark the "ChatGPT moment" for robotics. (New Atlas)

☢️ Major milestones for two new nuclear microreactors. The US Department of Energy is funding cutting-edge nuclear microreactor technologies with $3 million for Westinghouse’s eVinci reactor and $2 million for Radiant Industries’ Kaleidos reactor. These projects are set for testing at the DOE’s first microreactor testbed, the Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments (DOME), currently under construction in Idaho and expected to launch by 2026. Microreactors, compact and portable, generate up to 50 MW of power and offer zero-carbon energy for remote locations, military bases, and disaster recovery. Both designs utilize advanced TRISO fuel for safety. For cooling methods, Kaleidos employs helium gas while eVinci uses passive heat pipes, respectively. Both aim for commercialization by 2030. (IEEE)

🚀 Get ready for Starship's first test flight of the new year. SpaceX is gearing up for the first Starship test flight of 2025, scheduled for Monday from the Starbase site in Texas. This marks the seventh full-scale test of the Super Heavy booster and Starship spacecraft. Technicians are finalizing preparations, including completing pre-launch checks and readying the vehicle for liftoff:

For the next flight, SpaceX added protections to the sensors on the tower and will test radar instruments on the chopsticks to provide more accurate ranging measurements for returning vehicles. These modifications should improve the odds of a successful catch of the Super Heavy booster and of Starship on future missions.

The upgraded Starship features redesigned flaps for better heat protection, enhanced fuel systems, and over 30 cameras. It will carry 10 mock Starlink payloads, test in-space engine relight capabilities, and aim to splash down in the Indian Ocean. These advancements move SpaceX closer to fully reusable spacecraft, with potential applications for Moon missions, Mars exploration, and orbital refueling. (Ars)

🤖 Sam Altman says AGI is coming. In a recent blog post, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman made bold predictions about artificial intelligence, claiming confidence in achieving artificial general intelligence and forecasting AI agents joining the workforce by the end of 2025. According to OpenAI, AGI refers to "highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work." Altman’s goals lay even further beyond AGI, envisioning "superintelligence" that could revolutionize scientific discovery and innovation. OpenAI’s impact, including the launch of ChatGPT, has undeniably shaped the AI landscape, and the advent of true AGI could further reorganize the labor force as we know it. (Ars)

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On sale everywhere ⏩ The Conservative Futurist: How To Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised

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Down Wing Things

🥩 Trump 2.0 is reversing its stance on lab-grown meat. The cultivated meat industry, originally cheered on by the first Trump administration, is now facing major criticism. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other key figures have alternately declared the products unsafe, unnatural, or just plain gross. Startups are worried that new rules could slow them down:

Cultivated meat executives are trying to project optimism about the next four years . . . Republicans who support innovation, competition, and economic nationalism, they argue, ought to support high-tech manufacturing startups in the U.S. Trump ally Elon Musk’s own startup, SpaceX, has flown cultivated meat into space, while his brother Kimbal, an investor in the cultivated meat venture Upside Foods, once cooked its slaughter-free chicken on stage at a CNN event.

Companies like Wildtype are prepping to scale up, but they’re still waiting on FDA approvals: “Trump’s first-term FDA head, Scott Gottlieb, and Agriculture Secretary, Sonny Perdue, worked with cultivated meat startups as well as conventional meat interests to create a joint regulatory process that almost everyone liked.” Startups are pitching cultivated meat as a way to spark US innovation, create jobs, and tackle farming’s environmental downsides, but the political consensus seems uncertain. (Heatmap News)

💵 The US venture capital landscape is shrinking. Since 2021, the number of active investors has dropped by over a quarter. By 2024, only 6,175 VCs remained active, down from a peak of 8,315, according to PitchBook. This decline has concentrated funding power among a few mega-firms like Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital, and General Catalyst, which collectively raised over half of the $71 billion secured by US VCs in 2024:

One factor is a dramatic slowdown in initial public offerings and takeovers — the typical milestones at which investors cash out of start-ups. That has staunched the flow of capital from VCs back to their “limited partners” — investors such as pension funds, foundations and other institutions.

Smaller firms are struggling, with some winding down operations amid a tough market and diminished returns. Analysts predict that the consolidation trend will only speed up through 2025. (FT)

🗽 Tensions rise between India and the US over MAGA H-1B debate. Criticism from Americans on the right sparked accusations of racism from Indian commentators. The H-1B program, which allows skilled workers to temporarily work in the US, is dominated by Indian professionals. Over 70 percent of the visa holders in 2023 were Indian nationals. Critics argue the program prioritizes lower-cost foreign labor over domestic workers, while Indian commentators emphasize its contributions to the US economy:

During a news briefing Friday, a spokesman for India’s Ministry of External Affairs said, “India-U.S. economic ties benefit a lot from the technical expertise provided by skilled professionals, with both sides leveraging their strengths and competitive value.”

The Indian government has seized on the export of skilled labor as a patriotic issue, portraying it as a source of rising Indian power on the global stage. Past Indian leaders once lamented this exodus as a brain drain.

Prime Minister Modi has advocated for H-1B workers in discussions with President Biden. However, concerns over corporate exploitation and stagnant wages for Indian workers highlight the complex and contentious nature of the visa program. (Wapo)

🚫 Biden administration continues to push heavy AI regulation. The administration is preparing new controls on the global development of artificial intelligence, focusing on national security and economic growth. The proposed rules would restrict the export of US-made AI chips to adversarial nations like China and Russia while allowing allied countries, such as Japan and EU nations, unrestricted access. Tech companies, including Nvidia and Microsoft, have raised concerns, citing potential disruptions to global business and innovation:

The Biden administration’s plan has prompted swift pushback from American tech companies, which say global regulations could slow their businesses and create costly compliance requirements. Those firms also question whether President Biden should be setting rules with such far-reaching economic consequences in his final days in office.

The policy reflects America's intent to maintain its AI leadership while curbing the influence of competitors like China, but “Nvidia and other tech companies have also argued that the rules could backfire by driving buyers in the Middle East, Southeast Asia and elsewhere to Chinese companies like Huawei.” (NYT)

💡 Electricity use is up and outpacing the clean energy push. In 2024, US greenhouse gas emissions fell by just 0.2 percent from the previous year, reflecting a slowdown in progress toward climate targets. Despite significant growth in wind and solar power, a surge in electricity demand — driven by sweltering summer heat and expanding data centers — led to record natural gas use, offsetting emissions reductions. Whereas electricity demand in the US has remained relatively flat over the past two decades, it saw a three percent increase in 2024: “While power companies installed large numbers of wind turbines, solar panels and batteries last year to meet rising demand, natural gas use also rose to record highs, while coal use declined only slightly.” The projected rise in demand for energy-intensive technologies like AI means electricity demand is only expected to increase, making the need for clean energy technology more pressing than ever. (NYT)

🐵 The risk of animal diseases jumping to humans is growing. Zoonotic diseases pose an increasing global health threat, as highlighted by the worsening US bird flu outbreak, which recently caused its first human fatality. These diseases, including Ebola, MERS, and mpox, often lack vaccines or treatments and are fueled by human encroachment on wildlife, climate change, and intensive farming. Experts warn that zoonotic pathogens, like those behind COVID-19, could drive future pandemics. Organizations like CEPI and WHO are advancing disease surveillance and research, but gaps in global coordination and funding persist. Efforts in high-risk areas, such as Thailand, focus on early detection through targeted testing and genetic sequencing. Proactive investment in monitoring systems is critical to mitigating the escalating risks of zoonotic spillover. (FT)