🤖 The future that AI can help build

Ray Kurzweil offers a needed Up Wing vision of transformative artifical general intelligence

When will the future arrive? Of course, that’s a nonsense question. The future isn’t a fixed point that suddenly "arrives." Time flows continuously, and we're always moving from today into tomorrow. As soon as a moment arrives, it becomes the present, and then immediately becomes the past. Rather than a destination — even one with flying cars and mile-high skyscrapers — the future is a continuous process of experiencing each new moment as it comes. Kind of a brain-bender, I know.

A better version of that question: When will the sorts of technological advancements that we often think of as futuristic finally happen? As the saying, (attributed to many different folks) goes, "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."

That caveat noted, here are some current consensus predictions from the Metaculus forecasting platform:

• When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? May 29, 2027

• When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers? Aug. 23, 2031

• When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? Nov. 22, 2032

• When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service? April 18, 2041

• When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? June 18, 2043

• When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1 percent of the world's primary energy? Sept. 16, 2050

• When will a sample from one of the icy moons in the outer solar system be successfully returned to Earth? Jan. 17, 2063

• When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least one? April 3, 2066

• Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300? 89 percent

That last forecast is particularly interesting to me since it suggests how forecasts can affect each other. For example: If the forecast for the date of artificial general intelligence or superintelligence were moved forward, it should prompt forecasters to reconsider timelines for other tech advancements like cancer cures or nuclear fusion. That, especially if forecasters believe AGI could accelerate research and development in those areas. 

Which they absolutely should. Indeed, the potential impact on accelerating scientific and tech progress is a big part of the bullish case for AGI and the economy — although one ignored by most economic forecasters on Wall Street and in Washington.