🗳⤴ Politics and progress: a mini-manifesto

What is ‘conservative futurism?’ What does it mean to be ‘Up Wing?’

Apr 21, 2024

Quote of the Issue

“Combinatorial explosion is one of the few mathematical functions that outgrows an exponential trend. And that means that combinatorial innovation is the best way for human ingenuity to stay in the race with Moore’s Law.” - Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, Race Against The Machine

The Conservative Futurist: How To Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised

"A bracing tonic against pessimism and malaise, James Pethoukoukis' The Conservative Futurist makes a compelling case for a much better days ahead--if we embrace can-do culture and the policies it supports." - Virginia Postrel, author of The Fabric of Civilization: How Textiles Made the World and The Future and Its Enemies

The Essay

🗳⤴ Politics and progress: a mini-manifesto

“Conservative futurism” might seem to be a comical oxymoron, much like “honest politician” or “military intelligence.” - The Conservative Futurist: How to Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised

Let’s start here: What am I trying to conserve, exactly? This: the legacy and spirit of 1776, the political liberalism of the American Revolution and the economic liberalism of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, published that year.

And what does that stuff have to do with futurism? A conservative futurist wishes to preserve and strengthen the best of the ideas and institutions that made our modern world — and pass them along to future generations. It’s these principles — individual freedom and rights, rule of law, constrained but effective government, private property, free enterprise — that create the best conditions for a world where a) each may pursue the sort of future they desire and b) societies have the capabilities to tackle big problems.

This passage from The Conservative Futurist gives the flavor of what I’m describing:

I think of conservative futurism as it relates to the “pursuit of happiness” mentioned in the Declaration of Independence. That sort of happiness was not, writes British scholar Ritchie Robertson in The Enlightenment: The Pursuit of Happiness, 1680–1790, “simply a subjective state, such as might be induced by chemicals; it meant attaining the preconditions for personal happiness, including domestic affection, material sufficiency and a suitable degree of freedom.” Or as Neo told humanity’s AI overlords at the conclusion of The Matrix, “You’re afraid of change. I don’t know the future. I didn’t come here to tell you how this is going to end. I came here to tell you how it’s going to begin.” And it begins by creating better preconditions for discovery, invention, innovation, and growth.

Policymakers need to be humble

My futurism isn’t about precise technological predictions or detailed geopolitical forecasts. Instead, it focuses on what decisions today might cultivate a more resilient and adaptable society tomorrow, one that can dynamically adjust to changing preferences as expressed through a liberal democracy and a market economy. Such a system enables experimentation and innovation, while also allowing us to course-correct based on the outcomes of those experiments.

Government shouldn't try to microplan America's future with, say, a new "Department of the Future," perhaps based in some glass-and-steel building in Tysons Corner, Virginia. (Imagine a cavernous room — scores of workstations amid walls covered with flatscreen monitors — where numerous bureaucrats and their AI helpers attempt to direct America’s future by tracking and sorting countless Big Data variables.) We don't need the government picking winners and losers across a diverse and ever-evolving $25 trillion economy — regardless of how smart the officials are or whether they’re using large language models.

Take energy and climate change. The first best policy is to lower the price of green technology through a carbon tax, not through the best guesses and whims of politicians and elite bureaucrats. The carbon tax harnesses market forces to drive innovation and determine which green solutions are most viable and effective. Unfortunately, putting a price on carbon emissions isn’t the path we’ve chosen in the 2020s, instead opting to fund zero-carbon energy alternatives in the hope that, once deployed, will displace carbon-emitting sources. Good news: Washington seems to be slowly becoming more agnostic about which technologies deserve funding, which is helpful for nuclear and advanced geothermal. Also good news: The history of the Shale Revolution and Operation Warp Speed suggests government may not be utterly incompetent all the time.

The Left-Right political spectrum is insufficient

One might say a conservative futurist is a “right-liberal.” Of course, there are also left-liberals, folks who probably care a bit more about economic inequality than I do and have more faith in government’s ability to successfully intervene in the economy to create certain desirable outcomes. But we share a general appreciation for economic openness (the global flow of capital, goods and services, talent, and ideas) and the critical importance of a competitive, entrepreneurial private sector where producing valuable goods and services is rewarded.

Of course, right liberals and left liberals don’t encompass the entirety of the American left-right spectrum. There’s also the populist right and left, both which share a deep skepticism of American capitalism and its role in the global economy. Again, as I write in The Conservative Futurist:

In 2016, there emerged a strange kind of mutant voter who seemed to defy the laws of political reality: the Bernie Sanders–Donald Trump voter. How could such a strange creature exist? Sanders, who challenged Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination that year and then Joe Biden four years later, was a self-described democratic socialist who constantly railed against “millionaires and billionaires.” Trump was a self-described billionaire who used “socialist” and “communist” interchangeably when attacking Democrats. And yet the hardcore Bernie “bros” and MAGA Trumpers had a lot in common. Both groups seemed angry at “Wall Street, stagnating middle-class wages, international trade agreements, the influence of rich donors in political campaigns and, most of all, American political elites,” noted the Washington Post back then.

Start thinking about Up versus Down

So in addition to “right wing” or “left wing,” let’s also think in terms of “up” and “down.” To be “Up Wing” — a phrase and framing coined by futurist F.M. Esfandiary in his 1973 book, Up-Wingers: A Futurist Manifesto — means embracing a future-oriented optimism where rapid economic growth and technological progress are seen as essential for solving significant societal challenges and improving overall prosperity, opportunity, and human flourishing. No risk, no reward! Fortune favors the bold! “Let’s bring in more brainy immigrants who can accelerate AI progress so we can cure cancer, build fusion reactors, and colonize Mars! Sure, America isn’t perfect, but it’s always been the best game in town and we continue to pursue a more perfect union. Never bet against the USA!”

To be “Down Wing,” on the other hand, means urging caution in the face of technological and economic change, with a heavy focus on the economic disruption and other potential downsides of rapid progress. Better safe than sorry! When in doubt, do without! “If AI accelerates economic growth — though it will probably also take all the jobs and then kill us — it will further empower and enrich weirdo Silicon Valley billionaires and other Davosie elites who will gain more power over our lives. AI Pause now! AI Pause forever! America really sucks because it fails to meet my preference for an America of times past or an America that never was.”

I sometimes imagine that from America's polarized political landscape, a new politics emerges: an Up Wing versus Down Wing political realignment with two new parties: the Progress and Prosperity Party (P&P) and the Progressive Populist Party (ProPop). The P&P, inspired by forward-thinking Founding Fathers like Benjamin Franklin and Alexander Hamilton, embraces economic openness, innovation, and the proactionary principle of governing. In contrast, the ProPop — skeptical of big business, Silicon Valley, and technological disruption — pushes for policies infused with the precautionary principle.

While this vision may seem far-fetched, history shows American politics is no stranger to rapid change and creative destruction. One thing that may make an Up Wing political future and an abundance agenda more viable: a burst of economic growth and problem-solving from a cluster of powerful new technologies (AI; CRISPR; advanced energy; cheap, reusable rockets). A burst of progress, as we saw in the 1990s, can create an Up Wing attitude. But we need to keep it going.

To long-time subscribers thank you for supporting this project and taking this continuing journey. To newcomers, let's gooooo! Faster, please!

One more thing: What’s the Up Wing and Down Wing status of the two likely major US presidential candidates? Check out my next essay …

Everybody gets to use whatever name they like for their POV. _I_ would call this position "Liberal" or "Neoliberal." Personally, I like "Left-Neoliberal" to distinguish people who want to use markets to promote fast equitable growth, but who are also willing to transfer substantial consumption resources from higher income to lower income people.

I'm 82 and cannot remember a "conservative" who wanted to conserve anything except the income share going to high-income people. When was the last time a"conservative" reduced deficits, liberated trade, promoted merit based immigration, or took on NIMBY's?

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Faster, Please!

Discussion about this post

Faster, Please!

🗳⤴ Politics and progress: a mini-manifesto

What is ‘conservative futurism?’ What does it mean to be ‘Up Wing?’

Quote of the Issue

The Essay

🗳⤴ Politics and progress: a mini-manifesto

Policymakers need to be humble

The Left-Right political spectrum is insufficient

Start thinking about Up versus Down

Micro Reads

▶ Business/ Economics

▶ Policy

▶ AI/Digital

▶ Biotech/Health

▶ Clean Energy

▶ Robotics

▶ Space/Transportation

▶ Up Wing/Down Wing

Discussion about this post