😃⤴ Is a future-optimist Vibe Shift happening?

'What's the evidence of an emerging vibe shift in an Up Wing direction? So far it seems more impressionistic than empirical. Yet ..."

Quote of the Issue

“This is a story without end. All the world is still an America. The most promising words ever written on the maps of human knowledge are terra incognita — unknown territory.” Daniel J. Boorstin, The Discoverers: A History of Man's Search to Know His World and Himself

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The Conservative Futurist: How To Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised

“With groundbreaking ideas and sharp analysis, Pethokoukis provides a detailed roadmap to a fantastic future filled with incredible progress and prosperity that is both optimistic and realistic.”

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The Essay

😃⤴ Is a future-optimist Vibe Shift happening?

This is one of many, many pro-progress, e/acc, Up Wing microblogging posts by venture capitalist Marc Andreessen on X (Twitter):

Let’s talk about vibe shifts. The “shift” being talked about here is, in the most simple of terms, a shift from societal can’t do pessimism to can-do optimism, or at least the beginning of one.

“Pessimism,” or what I call Down Wing thinking: favoring caution over innovation; emphasizing safety and stability against the disruption of progress; skepticism towards technologies like AI, GMOs, nuclear power, and autonomous vehicles, driven by fears of unforeseen impacts and job losses; viewing progress through a zero-sum lens with a preference for the status quo over the potential benefits of exploratory change; deep-seated cynicism towards tech progress as a problem-solving tool, as well as toward entrepreneurial market capitalism. Better safe than sorry.

“Optimism,” or Up Wing thinking: a forward-looking approach, deeply rooted in the conviction that technology and innovation are still key to humanity's continued progress; embracing risk to surpass existing limits while aiming for a future marked by abundance and rapid growth; enthusiasm about the upside potential of disruptive technologies such as AI, CRISPR, and the space economy; confidence in entrepreneurial capitalism to solve global challenges and drive greater wealth and opportunity; a relentless pursuit of progress that expands human capabilities to create a better world of greater possibility. Never take a risk is the biggest risk of all.

What’s s the evidence of an emerging vibe shift in an Up Wing direction? So far it seems more impressionistic than empirical, which is maybe understandable given we're talking “vibes” here, after all. But I’ve certainly noticed what seems to be a substantial increase in Up Wing content on social media, including news about tech progress, memes, AI-generated future-optimist images, and fact-checking of doomer and degrowthers claims. (No, life was not better in medieval times.) Great, refreshing stuff.

That said, I would love it if Up Wing attitudes were more evident elsewhere. Two-thirds of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction, same as the share who think America will be weaker in 2050 than today. Also not good: About half of us, according to Pew Research, are “more concerned than excited about AI” in daily life versus 10 percent who say they are more excited than concerned.

On the other hand, there’s growing support for nuclear energy, which is a great stand-in for Up Wing attitudes more broadly since it encompasses beliefs about energy abundance, risk tolerance, and techno-solutionism toward big problems such as climate change. Then there’s the record-high stock market, hardly a sign of deep pessimism about tomorrow. It could just be that broad public opinion polling about the national direction and consumer confidence is too mixed up with political partisanship these days to be a useful gauge of Up Wing attitude.

Another question: Why would there be a future-optimist vibe shift happening at all? A few possibilities: