🤖 How do we know if the AI Revolution is real?

Amazing technology and dreams of superintelligence are great, but it all needs to be supported by lots of business investment

Quote of the Issue

“Weighing the dangers inherent in a technology like CRISPR against the responsibility to use its power for the benefit of humanity and our planet will be a test like no other. Yet it’s one that we must pass.”- Jennifer A. Doudna, A Crack In Creation: Gene Editing and the Unthinkable Power to Control Evolution

---

The Essay

🤖 How do we know if the AI Revolution is real?

If the latest period of enthusiasm about artificial intelligence turns out to be more hype than reality, it wouldn’t be the first time. And you don’t need to go back too far to find an example of a coming AI boom that never arrived. When IBM’s Watson question-answering system demolished Jeopardy! superchamp Ken Jennings in February 2011, it seemed like we might be entering an amazing new age of smart machines. Just as with today’s generative AI chatbots, such as ChatGPT, Bard, and Clause, Watson was billed as a technology with the potential to be a significant general-purpose technology with important applications across a variety of economic sectors.

As The New York Times reported in a 2021 retrospective on Big Blue’s supercomputer:

“Already,” IBM declared in an advertisement the day after the Watson victory, “we are exploring ways to apply Watson skills to the rich, varied language of health care, finance, law and academia.” ... IBM poured many millions of dollars in the next few years into promoting Watson as a benevolent digital assistant that would help hospitals and farms as well as offices and factories. The potential uses, IBM suggested, were boundless, from spotting new market opportunities to tackling cancer and climate change. An IBM report called it “the future of knowing.” … IBM’s television ads included playful chats Watson had with Serena Williams and Bob Dylan. Watson was featured on “60 Minutes.” For many people, Watson became synonymous with A.I.

Spoiler: Watson didn’t become a powerful, economy-altering GPT or return creator IBM to its former perch as one the most important technology companies in the world. (Flash fact: IBM’s market value is roughly $125 billion today versus $200 billion back in February 2011 whereas AI leaders Alphabet (Google) and Microsoft are worth $1.5 trillion and $2.7 trillion, respectively.) And, who knows, maybe ChatGPT will turn out to be another cautionary tech tale like Watson, much less usher in the Singularity.

Of course, it would be great to know the future in advance, or at least know what signs to look for if GenAI is really living up to what many experts think is its long-term potential. How to do that?