🤖 🦅 How AI can fix America's ugly, broken politics
But there's a catch: Polarization can undermine economic growth
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The Essay
🤖 🦅 How AI can fix America's ugly, broken politics
It’s common for Down Wing tech worriers to argue that generative AI will hurt American democracy by generating highly convincing fake news, deepfakes, and other forms of disinformation. The supposed risk: Reduced public trust in media, governmental institutions, and the electoral process, exacerbating social and political polarization.
But consider: What if AI enables the American economy to grow much faster over the rest of the 2020s? What is the pace of growth greatly exceeds the meh 2 percent real GDP that’s currently predicted by the Congressional Budget Office, Federal Reserve, and much of Wall Street? What would America be like at the start of the next decade of the 21st century — well, other than considerably richer than otherwise — after a sustained AI-powered boom?
As readers of The Conservative Futurist might recall, I contend that higher incomes are a whole lot more important than merely the increased purchasing power they provide. That, even in rich countries like the United States. Economist Benjamin Friedman's 2005 book, The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth, suggests a profound linkage between economic growth and societal advancement. According to Friedman, periods of economic prosperity tend to foster greater social justice, increased tolerance, deeper concern for the disadvantaged, and stronger respect for civil liberties. Friedman supports his thesis by pointing to US history: The Civil Rights Act of 1875 emerged during a post-Civil War economic boom, while more recent legislative advances in civil rights, immigration, and social welfare policies followed the strong economic expansion after World War II that I call Up Wing 1.0.
But economic downturns often lead to societal regression, Friedman writes, such as the reversal of minority voting rights that followed the panic of 1893 and the decline in support for affirmative action, welfare, and immigration after the stagflationary 1970s. As I see it, the rise of anti-immigration, white ethnic nationalism in the aftermath of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis and subsequent slow economic recovery would further seem to support Friedman’s thesis.
So perhaps given the economic shocks of the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic, we shouldn’t find it too surprising that some opinion surveys show public support for American democracy to be … surprisingly shaky, especially among younger Americans who’ve experienced one big government failure after another. Indeed, research by MIT economist Daron Acemoglu reveals that living in democracies capable of consistently delivering economic growth, peace, and effective governance enhances public support for democratic institutions. (On the other hand, democracies that fail to deliver these benefits don’t see a corresponding increase in support.)
These findings underscores the role of economic stability and growth in fostering faith in democratic systems. As I write in The Conservative Futurist:
To be clear, economic growth isn’t the only thing that matters. It’s part of a package of achievements that make people support democratic governance. And those achievements can create a sense of the societal readiness and trust needed to attempt the next moonshot project—or even build a new bridge or subway tunnel. “In a country where people don’t trust the government to be honest, or businesses to be ethical, or members of the opposite party to respect the rule of law, it is hard to build anything quickly and effectively—or, for that matter, anything that lasts,” argues Derek Thompson, staff write at The Atlantic.
Now let’s flip things around and examine how what’s happening in a society affects economic growth.
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