☹ Explaining irrational tech pessimism

Whether AI, fusion, or superconductors, some people weirdly refuse to have even a moment's optimism

Quote of the Issue

“Productivity grew 1.3% over the last year and has grown at an annualized rate of 1.4% since the end of 2019, in line with the pre-pandemic trend. Productivity growth appeared strong early in the pandemic and weak more recently, but this was partly due to a compositional effect caused by low-productivity service workers first being displaced and then being brought back. We expect artificial intelligence to provide a large boost to US productivity growth eventually, though the timeline is uncertain.” - David Mericle, Goldman Sachs, August 7, 2023

---

Room Temperature Superconductor Update:

---

The Essay

☹ Explaining irrational tech pessimism

A brief recap: If LK-99, the tantalizing material created by South Korean researchers that might be a superconductor able to carry electricity at room temperatures with zero resistance, proves to be legit, it would be a scientific breakthrough and general-purpose technology of civilizational impact. Science fiction becomes fact. We could start looking at all those clean, green 1960s dreams as a checklist for what we could do next: nuclear fusion, space colonies, undersea cities, flying cars. If not a Star Trek future, something pretty darn close.

Yet despite all that potential, the only folks I see really excited are people like me: pro-progress, accelerationist, “bring on cool-sh-t futurism, ASAP.”

Of course, one could argue that LK-99 obsessives like myself have been intemperate in our enthusiasm. There’s been nothing yet like a conclusive replication of the South Korean discovery, a lack of hard evidence reflected in the “not impossible but more unlikely than not” status of the LK-99 in various prediction markets (as seen above). Perhaps the silence of folks who talk most about a sustainable, zero-carbon future — something a real-deal LK-99 would enable — reflects their more sober judgment.

But I don’t think that’s the entire story here.