Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Adam Grant's avatar

Nuclear in its present form is withering on the vine as geometrically increasing solar and wind installations reshape the grid away from a centrally-managed baseload + peaker model to a more resilient network in which power flows in different directions to take advantage of the wind when it blows and the sun when it shines. Energy storage over various timescales is improving on a geometric experience curve, most recently with sodium batteries, and the Chinese are demonstrating what an HVDC-linked large scale network can look like. To take advantage of solar overbuilding and the often dirt cheap energy that it brings, designing many industrial processes around demand response will give humanity access to cheaper raw materials and possibly even desalination on an agricultural scale.

Nuclear's problem is not just that it always takes three times as long and costs three times as much as the initial estimate, that it's uninsurable and that the cost of storing the waste is never factored in because there's no plan to do that. The real problem is the centralized, huge bureaucracy, high tax and uncertainty it forces on society. Most power consumers would be happy putting up a few solar panels in a nearby field with a battery in the basement and a fat wire to the grid to even things out. This is becoming a reality now, and in less than a decade anyone will be able to make it happen with a few calls and a wait of a couple of months, as opposed to the decade or two it takes to get a nuclear plant permitted and built.

If you think small nuclear or thorium will save the industry, build a production line and sell a few. But bet your money on it rather than mine.

Expand full comment
3 more comments...

No posts