🗽 A Quick Q&A on the state of America … with trend expert and demographer Joel Kotkin
"Some sense of 'the inevitable rise of China' as the dominant power, I think that's beginning to go out of fashion"
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Q&A
🗽 A Quick Q&A on the state of America … with trend expert and demographer Joel Kotkin
Just a few short years ago, China’s rise to global economic dominance seemed inevitable to many. That view is starting to come into question now as the United States maintains its lead on the world stage. For example: America will account for 26.3 percent of global GDP this year, the highest in almost two decades, according to the IMF. What’s more, notes Wall Street Journal economics commentator Greg Ip and the IMF, “the Chinese economy has slipped in size to 64 percent of the U.S.’s from 67 percent in 2018.”
Joel Kotkin believes that America is uniquely poised to remain on top for the foreseeable future, a thesis he outlined in his recent piece, “The Myth of America’s Decline.” In spite of its poor political leadership, it has a few key factors going for it: abundant natural resources, constant immigration to offset the declining birthrate, and the capacity for industries to continually evolve to meet the ever-changing needs of the economy.
I asked him a few quick questions about that essay and what makes this country so exceptional, relative to its competitors. Kotkin is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University, where he serves as director of the Center for Demographics and Policy. He is a prolific author and columnist, and is the executive editor of NewGeography.com.
1/ In regards to that piece, The Myth of America’s Decline, which you wrote, North America may suffer from some of the world's poorest political leadership, yet it seems destined to remain the wealthiest, most dominant place on earth. Do you think that’s a contrarian opinion here in America?
Outside of rhetoric from politicians, yeah. What's changed is that there's now some sense that “the inevitable rise of China” as the dominant power, I think that's beginning to go out of fashion. There are still some people on Wall Street who would certainly not like that, but you have that.
You have obvious weakness in the EU. That was the other. If China was more popular among the traditional capitalist class, Europe was the favorite of the clerisy, and it's clear that Europe isn't working. You look at the investment numbers, you go on the streets—Paris is not remotely as nice a city as it once was. The European societies now have, in many ways, ethnic and racial conflicts that rival ours. So I think it's not just that America is stronger, but that everyone else is weaker. When you look at investment flows, I don't think money is coming to America because people think that Joe Biden is a brilliant leader. I think they're coming to America because, where else are they going to put their money?
2/ Do we require better leadership? Or are our other strengths so vast, so powerful, that we don't require fantastic leadership?
Well certainly, unless you get into a war, the natural strengths of the federal system contradict any attempt by leadership to impose itself. Whether it's Donald Trump can't change what California is doing, and Joe Biden really can't change what Texas is doing. He can nip around the edges, but, fundamentally, the federal system helps us. The only thing that scares me is if either of the parties gets a White House iand both houses of Congress. That would be scary. That would be the biggest threat to the country, in my opinion.
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