🚀 5 Quick Questions for ... James Pethokoukis (me!) on his new book, 'The Conservative Futurist: How to Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised'
'At minimum, we can grow as fast in the future as we have in the past, or even much better. Much better. Perhaps multiples better.'
5QQ
🚀 5 quick questions for ... James Pethokoukis (me!) on his new book,'The Conservative Futurist: How to Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised'
From the book flap: With groundbreaking ideas and sharp analysis, James Pethokoukis provides a detailed roadmap to a fantastic future filled with incredible progress and prosperity that is both optimistic and realistic. Through an exploration of culture, economics, and history, “The Conservative Futurist” tells the fascinating story of what went wrong in the past and what we need to do today to finally get it right. Using the latest economic research and policy analysis, as well as insights from top economists, historians, and technologists, Pethokoukis reveals that the failed futuristic visions of the past were totally possible. And they still are. If America is to fully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, take full advantage of emerging tech from generative AI to CRISPR to reusable rockets, and launch itself into a shining tomorrow, it must again become a fully risk-taking, future-oriented society. It’s time for America to embrace the future confidently, act boldly, and take that giant leap forward.
1/ Why did you write this book?
Two main reasons. First, the shortages of vital supplies during the pandemic, such as PPE and ventilators, illuminated a critical issue: even when faced with a crisis that had been accurately forecasted — experts have been warning about the likelihood of a similar pandemic for years — we frequently fall short in preparing for rare but serious problems. It’s fortunate, then, that the US, as a wealthy and technologically advanced country, could rapidly produce vaccines. Still, it's regrettable, even maddening, that a universal coronavirus vaccine wasn’t already available.
Secondly, this year marks the 50th anniversary of the peak and subsequent decline of US productivity growth, a phenomenon I refer to as the “Great Downshift” in the book, and which others have dubbed the “Great Stagnation” or “Long Stagnation.” I certainly don’t wish to experience additional decades of technological progress or economic growth that are slower than their potential. I want my flying car, as well as far greater wealth, health, and opportunity. As I write:
2/ What caused the Great Downshift in tech progress and growth?
In all honesty, there probably isn't just one reason. Economists point to a number of macro reasons, such as having fully exploited the productivity enhancing potential of the great inventions of the past, as well as big game-changing discoveries and inventions just being harder to find. But I am also confident that the slowdown resulted from decisions we made as a country, such as regulating as if regulations had no impact on our innovative capacity and our capacity to build in the real world. I also think it was a huge mistake to invest less in scientific research after the end of Project Apollo and the end of Space Race. In any event, the Great Downshift was a massive surprise to the future optimists of the 1960s — and for that matter, those of the late 1990s who thought the tech boom of those years would result in a permanent upshift in productivity and economic growth. All of it: human-level AI, space colonies, undersea cities, and much, much larger economy.
3/ There’s a saying that “politics is downstream from culture.” Did a change in our culture contribute to the Great Downshift?
I think so. In the book, I provide plenty of evidence that starting around 1970 America became a less future-oriented, less future-optimistic society. Look, after countries reach a certain income level, they begin to pay more attention to the downsides of economic growth. That tells me there was always going to be an environmental movement of some sort. But we ended up with an environmental movement that rather than just working to create a cleaner environment became utterly hostile to technological progress, economic growth, and market capitalism. It presented an absolutely dystopian picture of the future and our ability to make it a good one. I think it is difficult to persuade people that the natural disruption that comes from progress will be worth it if all they can imagine is catastrophe and disaster. From my book:
4/ Why should we be optimistic that we can turn the Great Downshift into the Great Upshift?
We are at an interesting moment right now. We have a number of emerging technologies with great potential from AI to genetic editing to nuclear and geothermal energy to space. If we can create a policy environment that is supportive of the continued advancement of these technologies and their diffusion throughout the economy, not only might we see a surge in economic growth, but a permanently higher level of productivity and economic growth. Throughout the book, I look at a number of public policies and their growth potential. And when you add them all together, we could do so, so much better than the sort of 2 percent growth that most experts from Washington to Wall Street are forecasting. At minimum, we can grow as fast in the future as we have in the past, or even much better. Much better. Perhaps multiples better. Our potential is really astounding.
5/ But how can we have a culture that is more supportive of progress?
Yes, government can promote a Great Upshift culture by enacting policies that foster scientific advancement, business creativity, and high-impact entrepreneurialism. This would help cultivate an environment conducive to further upward progress. However, supportive economic policies are not the only way authorities can encourage these ideals. There are additional measures policymakers and society could take to inspire a culture oriented toward improvement and innovation. One of my favorites is what I call the “Genesis Clock,” which could offer needed perspective on humanity's progress, much like the Doomsday Clock symbolizes existential threats. Its name inspired by Star Trek, it would indicate how close we are to a new epoch of abundance and prosperity. Factors setting the Genesis time could include: achieving artificial general intelligence; extending lifespan; curing diseases; deflecting cosmic impacts; reducing atmospheric carbon; ending malnutrition; reviving extinct species; eliminating poverty and oppression; accelerating technological growth; establishing off-planet civilization. Unlike the subjective Doomsday Clock, Genesis would rely on objective measures of progress. With recent advances, yet awareness more needed, it would start, like Doomsday, at seven minutes to the hour—here, seven minutes to Dawn rather than Midnight.
The Conservative Futurist: How to Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised is on sale now. You can find it everywhere!
Micro Reads
▶ The New Jobs for Humans in the AI Era - Robert McMillan, Bob Henderson, and Steven Rosenbush, WSJ |
▶ Generative AI Is Coming for Sales Execs’ Jobs—and They’re Celebrating - Paresh Dave, Wired |
▶ People Are Disinformation’s Biggest Problem, Not AI, Experts Say - Nate Lanxon and Jackie Davalos, Blomberg |
▶ SoftBank’s Son Says Artificial General Intelligence Will Soon Surpass Humans - Akane Otani, WSJ |
▶ Google Assistant Finally Gets a Generative AI Glow-Up - Will Knight and Lauren Goode, WIRED |
▶ ChatGPT’s New Upgrade Teases AI’s Multimodal Future - Matthew S. Smith, IEEE Spectrum |
▶ Margaret Atwood, John Grisham and me — was AI right to use our books? - Nilanjana Roy, FT |
▶ Deepfakes in Slovakia Preview How AI Will Change the Face of Elections - Daniel Zuidijk, Bloomberg |
▶ How AI can become pro-worker - Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, and Simon Johnson, VoxEU |
▶ Nobel Prize in Chemistry Awarded to 3 Scientists for Exploring the Nanoworld - Emma Bubola and Katrina Miller, NYT |
▶ Can China overcome its demographic deficit? - Martin Wolf, FT |
▶ Surging Business Formation in the Pandemic: Causes and Consequences? - Ryan Decker and John Haltiwanger, Brookings |
▶ Aspiring to a Better Future: Can a Simple Psychological Intervention Reduce Poverty? - Kate Orkin, Rob Garlick, Mahreen Mahmud, Richard Sedlmayr, Johannes Haushofer, and Stefan Dercon, NBER |
▶ Why Sweden Isn’t an Example of Socialism - Timothy Taylor, Conversable Economist |
▶ Warp drive’s best hope dies, as antimatter falls down - Ethan Siegel, BigThink |
▶ Bringing Mars Rocks to Earth Could Cost an Astronomical $11 Billion - Alexandra Witze, Scientific American |
My copy arrived yesterday. Looking forward to the read.